SMM September 2:
Overnight, LME lead opened at $1,994/mt, fluctuated downward during the Asian session, and touched a low of $1,986/mt upon entering the European session. Later, due to the weak US dollar, LME lead rebounded and finally closed at a high of $2,007/mt, up 0.5%.
Overnight, the most-traded SHFE lead 2510 contract opened at 16,875 yuan/mt, initially touched a low of 16,840 yuan/mt before fluctuating upward. As the production cuts and suspensions at domestic secondary lead smelters expanded, supply tightened and bulls increased their positions, driving SHFE lead to rally and hit a high of 16,950 yuan/mt before finally closing at 16,930 yuan/mt, up 0.53%.
Recently, the traditional peak season performance in the lead-acid battery market has been mediocre. Most battery enterprises maintained a produce-based-on-sales model and purchased raw material lead as needed. Additionally, lead prices remained high and consolidated, prompting downstream enterprises to exercise caution in purchasing "high-priced lead," resulting in sluggish transactions in the spot market. From late August to early September, events such as the Tianjin SCO Summit and the Beijing military parade were underway, restricting vehicle transportation in parts of North and Central China. This prolonged the delivery cycle of lead ingots from smelters and reduced shipments to social warehouses, leading to relatively small inventory changes in social warehouses. However, it is worth noting that some smelters' in-plant inventories have accumulated. If consumption does not improve significantly after transportation restrictions are lifted, social inventories of lead ingots may face accumulation risks, which could weigh on lead price trends.
Data source statement: Except for publicly available information, other data are derived from public information, market exchanges, and SMM's internal database model, processed by SMM for reference only and not constituting decision-making advice.
